With the Pitt Panthers beginning practice and junior point guard Xavier Johnson also celebrating his birthday recently, it seems fitting that I start with Johnson in my new series on breaking down areas of improvement for the incumbent players.

There is another reason I want to start this series with Johnson: His improvement or lack therefore is going to dictate how this year goes for Pitt. If he can progress, the Panthers have a real shot at the postseason, provided COVID-19 does not impact that in some way. However, if he regresses or even remains somewhat stagnant, Pitt may find itself hovering right around .500 and in the bottom half of the ACC standings once again.

Improvement is something that every player should strive for. For the sake of space and consistency, I am going to limit these articles to three areas per player. Obviously, there could be far more than just three.

I am going to label the above as “over-dribbling” because there are a few ways it can be described. Johnson has admitted to pressing last season, looking to the next level, and not always trusting his teammates. He also has an extremely explosive first step, a handle to match, and can get to anywhere on the court that he likes. I am not sure if one of those notions took precedent over the other, or if they were both churning equally at the same time last year. Ultimately, it boils down to Johnson dribbling the air out of the ball and grinding the flow of the offense to a halt in the process.

In the above at the :06 mark, Terrell Brown slipped the screen and was open in the short corner for a pass. There was also a pass to Ryan Murphy available that likely would have swung around the perimeter to a wide-open Justin Champagnie in the corner had the defense been forced to rotate. Both of those options were better than dribbling right into his defender with Brown’s defender sinking back towards the basket, and help coming from Murphy’s defender.

Over-dribbling and decision-making can go hand-in-hand. There were times when Johnson would over penetrate and did not take advantage of opportunities as they presented themselves. A high ball screen for Johnson towards the end of the shot clock was a common way for the Panthers to end possessions where they did not get something out of their initial action.

His explosive first step allowed him to get a step on Brown’s defender as the defense denied him the use of the screen set by Brown. At the :15 mark, all five defenders were focused on Johnson as he drove. There was clearly a pass available to a cutting Au’Diese Toney as the momentum of his defender was going in the other direction to help on the drive. That must be where Johnson gives up the ball for an easy dunk. Instead, he over penetrated and the defense was able to draw a charge. Additionally, because he took that extra second before attempting a lob pass to Toney, the defense was able to recover to contest it, further increasing the difficulty.

Decision-making and shot selection also go hand-in-hand. At the collegiate level I do not believe that Johnson will be more than an average shooter in terms of his percentages. That is primarily because of his inconsistent mechanics and shot selection. Both can be improved upon, but that is a bigger leap than I think some people realize. Johnson shot 40% or better in 12 of his first 13 games at Pitt has not been able to convert 40% or more of his attempts for more than two games in a row since that time.

Sure, if he made a few more of his shots at the rim it would certainly help his percentages, but he also needs to be more selective with his outside shots. Even towards the end of conference play, Johnson was still taking shots like the above. That is the kind of shot that is “available” at all times.

There was no reason for him to settle on that shott if you presume that the Panthers wanted to attack any time the defense switched on ball screens involving Brown. Johnson should have at least made some attempt to take the slower defender off the dribble, but instead settled for a step back three-pointer. Why?

The long rebound sparked a fast break going the other way and it ended up as an easy two points for the Florida State Seminoles. His decision not only cost his team points, but it made it rather easy for the other team to get them. As a side note, his transition defense was not particularly inspiring either.

In my opinion, Johnson is the most physically gifted lead guard that has worn a Pitt jersey in the Petersen Events Center. But he must find a way to fully utilize his gifts within the offense. That starts with better decision-making. Johnson should understand that there will be times the team needs him to put his head down and get to the basket, but he has to pick his spots better and know how to get his teammates involved with all the attention he draws.

Is he going to completely revise his shooting mechanics like Lonzo Ball did this past year, no. That said, he also is not as unorthodox as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and just needs to not force up contested shots. An improved roster in terms of the talent around him is going to help. Johnson trusting in those guys is will be the difference between another season of regression, or one that lives up to the hype surrounding him after his freshman campaign.