50 sacks: Can Pitt do it again?

Pitt’s defense led the country in sacks per game last season, but the reward for doing a good job is the opportunity to do an even better one, and that begs the question:

Can the Panthers improve on 2019’s sack total in 2020?

That won’t be an easy feat. Pitt had 51 sacks in 2019, tying SMU at 3.92 sacks per game. Ohio State actually had more total sacks with 54, but the Buckeyes played 14 games and had an average of 3.86 per game.

While two teams reached 50 sacks in 13 games last season, that accomplishment is no easy feat. In fact, from 2006-18, only four teams had at least 50 sacks while playing a 13-game season:

Texas A&M had 51 in 2011; Arizona State had 52 in 2012; Utah had 55 in 2014 and Florida State recorded 51 in 2016.

That puts Pitt and SMU in rarified air, but there’s another stat that is even rarer than getting 50 sacks in 13 games:

Doing it again.

Those four teams mentioned above - 2016 Florida State, 2014 Utah, 2012 Arizona State and 2011 Texas A&M - all fell short of recording 50 sacks the next season. In fact, most were well short of that total. Texas A&M dropped a full 20 sacks from 51 in 2011 to 31 in 2012. Arizona State went down eight from 2012 to 2013. Utah’s total of 55 in 2014 dropped to 37 in 2015. And Florida State nearly cut its 2016 sack total in half, falling from 51 to 29 the next year.

That doesn’t seem to bode well for the pass rushes at Pitt and SMU this year. But there are some differences in 2020 will look like for the Panthers, and chief among those differences is personnel. Pitt had six players record at least four sacks in 2019: Jaylen Twyman (10.5 sacks), Patrick Jones (8.5), Kylan Johnson (6.5), Phil Campbell (5.5), Deslin Alexandre (5.5) and Habakkuk Baldonado (4).

Of those six, five return in 2020; Johnson is the only one who won’t be back.

The other teams that have hit 50 sacks in 13 games weren’t quite as lucky with personnel. Florida State in 2016 and Utah in 2014 each had one player put up a monster sack total: FSU had Demarcus Walker record 16 sacks that season, while Utah got 18.5 sacks out of Nate Orchard in his senior season. Both went on to be second-round picks in the NFL Draft; the Seminoles and Utes were unable to find quality replacements the following season and their team sack totals dropped as a result.

Neither Texas A&M in 2011 nor Arizona State in 2012 had that one big producer and both returned their leaders in sacks. But both teams also experienced a decrease in sacks on an individual level, almost across the board.

In 2011, Texas A&M was led in sacks by linebackers Sean Porter (9.5) and Damontre Moore (8.5). The next year, Moore upped his sack total to 12.5 - an increase of four - but Porter dropped from 9.5 to 3.5. Arizona State had a similar problem: the Sun Devils had two players record 10.5 sacks in 2012, but one dropped to 8.5 and the other had just four sacks in 2013. Arizona State also lost two players who combined for 12.5 sacks in 2012.

Since Pitt returns almost all of its top sack producers from 2019, the question becomes this: can the returning players produce at similar or better levels in 2020?

The Panthers were led by Twyman, whose 10.5 sacks were the most by a Pitt defensive tackle since Aaron Donald. Twyman is building a strong NFL resume, but double-digit sacks for an interior lineman can be a tough bar to reach in consecutive seasons.

Even if Twyman’s numbers fall a bit, though, Pitt has a real chance of improving the production around him. Jones had a breakout season in 2019 with 8.5 sacks and should add to that in 2020. Campbell and Alexandre also broke out with 5.5 sacks each and Baldonado’s first year of extended snaps saw him produce a respectable four in reserve duty.

Another year of experience should give those players a solid chance of building on their numbers, and the defense as a whole will benefit from the returns of end Rashad Weaver and tackle Keyshon Camp, two fifth-year veteran players with experience and pass-rushing skill.

How important would it be for Pitt to get near or surpass the 50-sack mark again this season? There’s no question that the Panthers’ defense excelled with pressure in 2019. Pitt’s 51 sacks were spread over 46 drives; those 46 possessions resulted in points just eight times - five field goals and three touchdowns - for a scoring percentage of 17.4.

Conversely, when Pitt’s defense didn’t record a sack on an opponent's possession, the drive led to a field goal or a touchdown 37.3% of the time. Many factors beyond sacks went into those drives, of course, but getting to the quarterback was a key component of Pitt's defense in 2019 and will continue to be in 2020.