10 thoughts on comebacks, championships and more

Big comebacks, little comebacks, meaningless rankings, meaningful games and a lot more that we’re thinking about in the final week of the regular season.

The big comeback
I’ll repeat the refrain everyone has been saying since Saturday afternoon (or longer): Who saw this coming after Pitt got blown out by Central Florida? As the Panthers were boarding the plane home from Orlando, who saw them booking flights to Charlotte less than two months later? I didn’t, although I knew the ACC schedule was one that result in more than a few wins for Pitt. I just didn’t know if this team could produce positive results in a consistent enough fashion to actually be in contention for the Coastal title, let alone win the damn thing.

But here they are. A trip to Miami this weekend and then a 13th game: a date with No. 2 Clemson in Charlotte.

The smaller comebacks
I have written and talked about this a bunch, but I’m not going to stop because I don’t think it can be emphasized enough: this Pitt team engineered its second-half turnaround by posting second-half comebacks. These Panthers played their way into the ACC Championship Game by overcoming halftime deficits and winning games in the third and fourth quarter. That is not a small thing. In fact, it wasn’t that long ago that Pitt was a reliable second-half patsy; if you had a lead against the Panthers at halftime or in the second half, you won. Period point blank. It was that simple, and it lasted for the better part of five years, basically from the 2009 bowl game until 2015 (with two exceptions: the 2013 Notre Dame game and the 2013 bowl game).

Since then, Pat Narduzzi has led Pitt to overcome halftime deficits five times, including three this year - Duke, Virginia and, most recently, Wake Forest. This season also saw a fourth-quarter comeback against Syracuse, too; that’s four of the five wins that constitute 2018’s turnaround, and they’ve done it by being resilient, never giving up and continuing to believe in what they’re doing. It’s been impressive to watch.

Yes, this is a good championship
Most Pitt fans aren’t falling into the trap, but plenty of people in my Twitter mentions and even someone replying to the Panther-Lair.com Facebook page went for the narrative that Pitt winning the Coastal is no big deal since the division isn’t exactly the most competitive in the nation.

Sure, it’s true that the Coastal is probably near the bottom of the Power Five conferences and divisions, ahead of maybe the Pac-12 South and the Big Ten West and that’s it. But you know what? It doesn’t matter. You play who is on your schedule, and your goal is to have a better record than the teams that are in your division. That’s it. It’s not your fault if the division isn’t as top-heavy as others; all you can do is take on the eight teams the ACC tells you to play and see what happens.

And what happened was Pitt beat six of them with one left to play. That’s good enough to be crowned the champion of the division, and there’s nothing to apologize for in that regard.

And another thing
And while we’re talking about such topics, let me also say this:

I really don’t give a damn about rankings. I mean, I put an article on the front page of the site Sunday afternoon about Pitt getting into both major national polls for the first time since 2015, but I did that because it was news and not because I’m putting a lot of stock or significance in it. The reality is, the only thing that matters is the same thing that mattered when Pitt didn’t make the polls last week or the week before:

It’s the Coastal. That’s all that matters. Rankings and polls don’t matter; a spot in the ACC Championship Game does. If you handed Pat Narduzzi two pieces of paper and one was a national poll and the other was a ticket to Charlotte, which one is he taking? Which one would you take? The answer is obvious.

Who cares where they’re ranked? Who cares which teams are ranked ahead of them? Nothing could matter less. Pitt is one of the last two teams standing in the ACC. That’s what matters right now. If Pitt gets to the point where it is jockeying for position in the College Football Playoff rankings, then we can haggle over who should be there. Until then, the goals are a bit more tangible.

A nice time to get hot
Kenny Pickett didn’t just play well on Saturday. He played the best game of his young career. 23-of-30 for a career-best 316 yards and a career-best three touchdowns. He was poised, sharp in his decisions and sharper in his throws. He’s developing trust in his receivers making plays down the field and he’s seeing when those shots are available to be taken.

Pickett was the source of so much optimism this offseason, but his play for most of the regular season has been lacking. He hasn’t always had great protection and he hasn’t been entirely comfortable in the pocket as a result. When he has had time, he hasn’t always seen the open receivers and a lot of potential plays have been left on the field. But after looking pretty good in a convenient 7-of-11 game against Virginia Tech - how much passing do you need to do when your team rushes for 492 yards? - Pickett came out on fire to beat Wake Forest.

He was as good as he has ever been (in an admittedly small sample size) and if that’s an indication of what’s to come…

Two big weapons
It’s not a coincidence that Pickett’s recent surge has coincided with - maybe caused? - some impressive performances from his top two receivers, Taysir Mack and Maurice Ffrench. In the last two games, those two have combined to catch 14 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns. They’re catching short passes and getting yards after the catch and, more importantly, they’re making plays downfield. Legitimate “wow” plays, to the extent that, when you now see Pickett drop back and heave a deep one, you don’t immediately write off the possibility of it getting caught.

The vertical passing game has not been a threat at Pitt in a few years; it’s been at least since 2016 with Jester Weah, and possibly back to 2015 with Tyler Boyd although Nathan Peterman didn’t take all that many deep shots, so we could be looking back to 2013 with Tom Savage at quarterback. But right now, Pickett is confident in firing deep and Mack and Ffrench have both shown an ability to make the catches. If those two guys are working against one-on-one coverage, it’s worth it for Pickett to take a chance on a long throw. That’s becoming a weapon in Pitt’s offense.

Good by just about any measure
You won’t find much that reflects poorly on Pitt’s defensive performance on Saturday. Wake Forest came into the game averaging 486.7 yards per game over the previous three contests; the Panthers held the Deacons to 285. They averaged 35.7 points per game over the last three; Pitt gave up 13 points. Receiver Greg Dortch was averaging 7.5 catches and 92.1 yards per game; he had four catches for 33 yards on Saturday. The defense also continued its strong fourth-quarter play, allowing just three points in the final 15 minutes; the Panthers have now allowed a total of 23 fourth-quarter points in the last six games (that’s a big part of those comeback wins we talked about earlier).

The defense is playing well right now, and while there are moments when it seems like the dam is going to break, it hasn’t, at least not for the last few games. And they have made plays at the right moment, like Jason Pinnock’s interception in the fourth quarter.

Something else about the defense
One other thing about the defense was that I thought they handled Wake Forest’s tempo really well. You didn’t see any substitution penalties on the defense and there was only one defensive timeout (which worked out well; Pitt called a timeout to get its Delta personnel on the field for third-and-6 in the second quarter and it resulted in a six-yard sack). Wake Forest runs plays as fast as anyone in the country, but the Panthers looked well-prepared for it. They definitely didn’t have nearly as many cramps and injuries as they had in the Central Florida game (it was pretty hot in Orlando that day).

Down a few
As we talk about the defense, I don’t think we should forget that they were missing a couple guys on Saturday. Quintin Wirginis and Keyshon Camp are out for the season, of course, but their absences shouldn’t be overlooked; they were key players for this defense. Dewayne Hendrix didn’t play on Saturday with what seems to be a health-related issue; he has been playing well lately and was missed in the pass rush.

Everybody has injuries at this time of year, but Pitt’s defense is playing its best ball and did it on Saturday without three of its best players. It seems like that should be noted, too.

Special
Alex Kessman has gotten a lot of attention for being really good this season, but after the Wake Forest game, we should show a little bit to Kirk Christodoulou. He punted five times and averaged 51.6 yards per punt. That included a monster 71-yard punt at the end of the first half when Pitt had failed in its two-minute drill and the Panthers needed Wake Forest to be as far away from the end zone as possible. Christodoulou responded by bombing one to the Wake 4.

Then, for his next act, Christodoulou punted at the end of Pitt’s first drive in the second half and crushed it again. Kicking from the Pitt 25, he sent one soaring 61 yards before it went out of bounds at the Wake 14. All told, Wake Forest’s average starting position after a punt was the 22.2; that’s two yards beyond the 20, but the Deacons did get a 16-yard return by Greg Dortch in the first quarter that took the ball out to the 42. If Dortch had been tackled closer to where he caught the ball - the Wake 26 - the average starting position would have been inside the 20.

Nice game for Christodoulou, who has been steadily improving after a rough start to the season.